Good afternoon Guarantee, this is Scott:
Many of you know that we are members of The Realty Alliance, an organization of large real estate companies. Last week we met in Denver for our semi annual meetings where we discuss current markets, new trends and innovation, economics and a myriad of other related topics. I always come away filled with new ideas and motivated to move our company forward into the next generation of the real estate business. While at the meetings the stock market took a freefall, which needless to say made for some very interesting discussions. One such discussion involved Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. I sometimes find him to be a little Pollyanna like. However, he had some dead on analysis of the current market. I want to share a few of his observations with you.
First: He correctly identified the steady recovery movement in the areas most impacted by the downturn in real estate. That's us, and he is correct.
Second: He predicts that mortgage rates will fall in the coming months.
Third: The housing stimulus package will have a positive and significant impact going forward.
Forth: The $700 Billion bail out is better defined as a bet by congress on housing. He sees it as congress intent on stimulating housing.
Fifth: He predicts sales of existing single-family homes to steadily rise from this point forward.
Sixth: He predicted that money for residential mortgages would continue to be readily available.
Well, I believe he is right on these six points. In fact, it is a little like the weatherman who looks outside to see if it's sunny and than reports that there is a 70% chance of a sunny day! As you know, our sales of existing homes have been rising since early spring. That trend continues today. Prices will continue to be held back but our inventory is dropping each month. Take a look at the Market Report on Update.guarantee.com for the actual numbers. We are leading the rest of the country out of this downturn. Few areas outside of California have seen what we are now experiencing. However, we were the first to drop and we fell further than the rest. Now we are going to lead the industry back to sustained growth and health. I think Dr. Yun got it right. One final note, he said the following: "When rates fall, people buy homes. When prices fall, people buy homes. People buy homes independent of the economy. Recession has far less an impact on the housing market than mortgage rates." We have falling rates, low home prices and momentum. Let your buyers know that the clock is ticking. Don't let them miss what is possibly the best buying opportunity in the past couple of decades. Try this, check out the statistics on update.guarantee.com and then call your buyers and let them know what is taking place in the market. You may just be doing them the biggest favor of their lives and who knows, maybe you can make some money as well. God bless, have a GRE8, great week.